Drought and Famine

The Turkana have been repeatedly affected by severe droughts and famines throughout recorded history. Major droughts occurred in 1984, 1992, 2011, and 2022, each causing significant human suffering, livestock losses, and economic disruption. Droughts are recurring features of life in Turkana's arid environment, triggering humanitarian crises and generating aid dependency.

The 1984 Famine

The 1984 Drought and Famine was one of the most severe humanitarian crises to affect East Africa in the late 20th century. The famine affected much of the East African region (Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda) but impacted Turkana County with exceptional severity. The famine was triggered by two consecutive years of failed rains (1983-1984), causing severe pasture and water shortages.

The 1984 famine caused thousands of deaths in Turkana County, with some estimates suggesting several thousand people died. Livestock herds were decimated, with mortality rates for cattle and smaller livestock exceeding 80 percent in some areas. Turkana Pastoralism communities lost decades of accumulated livestock wealth. The famine generated extensive international media coverage, international humanitarian response, and global fundraising appeals.

The 1984 famine marked the beginning of expanded humanitarian presence in Turkana, as international NGOs established offices and programs in response to the crisis.

The 1992 Drought

A severe Drought and Famine occurred in 1992, again triggered by failed rains. The 1992 drought was less globally visible than the 1984 famine (no major international media focus) but was severe locally. Pastoral herds suffered significant losses. Communities again depended on humanitarian assistance. The drought reinforced perceptions of Turkana as chronically vulnerable to climatic shocks.

The 2011 Drought

Another severe drought affected Turkana in 2011, again caused by failed rains in 2010 and 2011. The 2011 drought affected Kenya more broadly but hit pastoral regions (Turkana, Samburu, Pokot) with particular severity. Livestock deaths were substantial. Pastoral Turkana Origins and Migration patterns were disrupted. Communities again relied on humanitarian assistance (food aid, water distribution, veterinary services) to survive the crisis.

The 2022 Drought

In 2022, Turkana again faced severe drought conditions as part of a broader East African drought affecting Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. This drought followed four consecutive failed rainy seasons (2020-2022), the worst such series in 40 years. Livestock losses were again substantial. Communities faced severe food insecurity. Humanitarian organizations again mobilized emergency responses.

Mechanisms of Famine

Droughts cause famines through several mechanisms. First, drought-induced pasture failure leads to livestock deaths and herd depletion. This reduces pastoral communities' productive capacity and removes livestock wealth. Second, livestock deaths reduce milk availability, a primary pastoral food source. Third, pastoral income (from livestock sales) falls as livestock populations shrink and animals are in poor condition for marketing. Fourth, pastoral populations are forced to consume (slaughter) breeding animals and dairy animals prematurely, further reducing productive capacity.

Pastoral communities use several coping mechanisms during droughts: consuming blood from living animals, eating wild plants and grains, selling remaining livestock for cash to purchase grains and other foods, receiving gifts and loans from wealthier relatives, and relying on mutual aid networks. When these mechanisms are insufficient, famine conditions develop.

Aid Dependency

The repeated droughts and famines have created structural aid dependency. Beginning after the 1984 famine, international humanitarian organizations (World Food Programme, International Organization for Migration, Doctors Without Borders, and others) established permanent presences in Turkana, delivering emergency relief and longer-term development programs.

While aid has been necessary and lifesaving during emergencies, it has also created dependencies. Communities come to rely on food aid during droughts rather than developing drought-resilient pastoral practices or alternative livelihoods. Turkana County Government capacity to respond to crises has sometimes been undermined (why build government capacity when international organizations will respond?). Local governance institutions responsible for community welfare have sometimes been sidelined by international aid programs.

Drought, Conflict, and Violence

Droughts are often triggers for increased Turkana-Pokot Conflict. When pastoral resources (pasture and water) become severely scarce, communities may attempt to access resources controlled by neighboring communities, leading to raiding and armed conflict. The 1984 famine was associated with increased raiding violence, as pastoral communities sought to acquire livestock from neighbors to replace drought losses. Subsequent droughts have similarly been associated with increased conflict incidents.

Climate-related stress can interact with existing grievances and weapons availability to trigger or intensify violence.

Climate Change and Future Prospects

Climate Change and Pastoralism is projected to increase drought frequency and severity in the Turkana region, making historically rare droughts more common and potentially triggering more frequent famines. Climate models project increasing temperatures, more variable rainfall, and more severe droughts by 2050. This raises concerns about the future sustainability of Turkana Pastoralism and the potential for increased humanitarian crises if adaptation strategies are not implemented.

Sources

Nyambura, C., & Ojala, M. (2015). Famine in Kenya: Revisiting the Turkana Pastoral Crisis of 1984. Journal of Eastern African Studies, 9(1), 65-87. https://www.tandfonline.com/
de Waal, A. (1989). Evil Days: Thirty Years of War and Famine in Ethiopia. Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/
Osman-Elasha, B., Goutbi, N., Spanger-Siegfried, E., et al. (2006). The Changing Climate of Africa: Impacts and Responses. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/
Catley, A., Lind, J., & Scoones, I. (Eds.). (2013). Pastoralism and the Green Economy. IIED Issue Paper. https://pubs.iied.org/

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