The official results announced by the IEBC on August 15, 2022, indicated that William Ruto had won the 2022 presidential election with 50.49% of the valid votes cast (7,176,141 votes out of 14,212,587 total valid votes). Raila Odinga finished second with 48.85% (6,942,930 votes), resulting in a margin of just 233,211 votes between the two leading candidates. The narrow margin represented the third consecutively close presidential election in Kenya following 2013's 50.07% margin and 2017's 54% margin.
Ruto's razor-thin 1.64 percentage point margin exceeded the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, though by only 89,874 votes above the mathematical 50% threshold. The proximity to the threshold meant that minor changes in voting patterns in contested constituencies could have altered the result and triggered a runoff election. The narrow margin also created grounds for Raila's subsequent Supreme Court petition challenging the results, alleging that the narrow margin reflected electoral manipulation rather than genuine voter preference.
Other presidential candidates finished substantially behind the two major contenders. George Wajackoyah, a political newcomer running on a legalization-of-marijuana platform, secured 0.32% of the vote (45,402 votes). David Mwaure, running as the Agano Party candidate, secured 0.27% of the vote (38,880 votes). These minor candidates together captured less than 1% of the vote, suggesting that Kenyan voters had consolidated substantially around the two major candidates despite Ruto and Raila's relatively weak vote shares compared to historical standards.
The Kenya Kwanza coalition won 167 of 290 elected National Assembly seats, providing a comfortable working majority and substantial control over legislative agenda-setting. The Azimio coalition won 123 seats, granting the opposition significant but insufficient bloc to control parliamentary action or prevent legislation. Smaller parties and independent candidates won the remaining seats.
In gubernatorial elections conducted simultaneously, the Kenya Kwanza coalition's candidates won the majority of the 47 county governorships, though not uniformly across all regions. The geographic variation in gubernatorial outcomes was greater than the presidential results, suggesting that county-level politics remained more fluid and less dominated by the national coalitions than presidential contests.
The regional distribution of votes reflected the realignment that the 2022 election represented. Ruto performed exceptionally well in the Rift Valley (his historical base), securing vote shares exceeding 75% in Kalenjin regions. Critically, Ruto also achieved substantial support in Central Kenya (Kikuyu regions), securing approximately 40% of the vote in areas that had voted 80%+ for Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017. This Central Kenya performance was the decisive factor enabling Ruto's national victory despite his inability to achieve dominance in Luo, Luhya, and other western constituencies.
Raila dominated in traditional opposition strongholds (Luo, Luhya, Kamba, coastal regions), achieving vote shares exceeding 80% in these areas. However, this dominance in opposition regions was insufficient to overcome Ruto's consolidated support in the Rift Valley and divided support in Central Kenya. The geographic split between the candidates meant that neither had achieved the cross-regional dominance that would have provided overwhelming victory margins or undisputed mandates.
Urban areas continued to display greater voting diversity than rural areas, with both candidates achieving support in different urban constituencies. However, even in urban areas, regional and ethnic factors remained significant in determining voting behavior, suggesting that Kenya's electoral behavior remained substantially structured by geographic and ethnic identity despite urbanization and modernization processes.
The 2022 results thus represented a decisive but narrow victory for Ruto and a fundamental realignment of Kenya's political coalitions. The Kikuyu vote shift from Uhuru to Ruto, combined with Ruto's consolidation of Kalenjin support, enabled his victory despite lacking traditional dominance in the numerically large western constituencies that supported Raila.
See Also
2022 Election 2022 Election Kenya Kwanza 2022 Election Azimio Coalition 2022 Election IEBC Drama 2022 Election Supreme Court Petition
Sources
- Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. (2022). 2022 General Elections: Official Results and Analysis. Retrieved from https://www.iebc.or.ke/
- International Crisis Group. (2022). Kenya's 2022 Election: Results and Political Realignment. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/
- European Union Election Observation Mission. (2022). Kenya 2022 General Elections: Final Report. Retrieved from https://www.eueom.eu/