The Azimio-One Kenya Coalition was the opposition alliance that contested the 2022 election under the presidential leadership of Raila Odinga, backed explicitly by outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta. The Azimio coalition incorporated the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party, the Wiper Democratic Movement (though with split internal allegiances), and multiple smaller parties representing various regional constituencies. The coalition represented an attempt to unite Kenya's political elite behind Raila Odinga's fifth presidential candidacy and to prevent William Ruto from achieving national office.
The coalition's formation reflected the handshake alliance established in March 2018, wherein Uhuru and Raila had committed to joint governance and political partnership. By 2022, with Uhuru's presidency coming to a constitutionally-mandated end, the natural succession within the elite partnership was for Uhuru to support Raila's return to the presidency. The Azimio coalition thus represented the institutionalization of the Uhuru-Raila alliance into a formal electoral partnership.
The coalition's dominant party was the ODM, led by Raila Odinga, which provided the coalition's presidential candidate and its primary organizational base. The ODM had consolidated opposition politics for three decades and remained the largest opposition party. However, the ODM alone did not constitute a winning coalition, necessitating that Raila assemble coalition partners representing constituencies outside the ODM's traditional bases. The ODM's traditional strength in Luo, Luhya, Kamba, and coastal regions meant that coalition success required breaking into the Kikuyu-dominant Central Kenya that Jubilee's Uhuru Kenyatta controlled.
Uhuru Kenyatta's explicit endorsement of Raila and his decision to join the Azimio coalition represented a dramatic reversal from his prior opposition to Raila. The endorsement meant that Jubilee's organizational machinery and Kikuyu community networks theoretically would support Raila. However, Uhuru's endorsement of Raila against his own Deputy President William Ruto proved controversial among some Jubilee and Kikuyu constituencies that believed Uhuru was sabotaging his own political legacy by backing the opposition.
Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper Democratic Movement was nominally part of the Azimio coalition, though with ambiguous commitment. Kalonzo had long alternated between opposition and government alignment and had previously contested presidential elections himself. His participation in the Azimio coalition as a coalition partner rather than as the presidential nominee represented a diminished role compared to his prior political status. Internal Wiper divisions meant that Kalonzo's commitment to the coalition remained unstable throughout the campaign period.
The Azimio coalition's campaign emphasized continuity with Uhuru's development-focused agenda and framed Raila as the candidate most capable of consolidating the gains achieved during Uhuru's presidency. The coalition characterized Ruto's hustler narrative as a populist deception that offered no substantive policy alternative. The coalition emphasized infrastructure development, macroeconomic stability, and inclusive governance as priorities. However, the campaign failed to generate sufficient enthusiasm to overcome the coalition's elite establishment characterization or to penetrate Ruto's support among constituencies perceiving themselves as economically marginalized.
The coalition's parliamentary presence was substantial, with ODM, Jubilee, Wiper, and allied parties securing 123 out of 290 National Assembly seats. This substantial but minority position meant that the coalition would be unable to control parliament or to legislate without support from Kenya Kwanza coalition MPs. The parliamentary imbalance thus reflected the coalition's failure to consolidate support sufficient for national dominance.
The Azimio coalition's performance in regional voting was mixed. The coalition dominated in traditional opposition strongholds (Luo, Luhya, Kamba, coastal regions) but failed to penetrate Central Kenya in the proportions that Uhuru's endorsement had suggested would be achievable. The regional fragmentation meant that Raila consolidated 48.85% of the national vote while failing to achieve the geographic dominance necessary for victory.
Post-election, the Azimio coalition's coherence fragmented. Following Raila's election loss and his initial Supreme Court petition challenging the results, opposition interest in coalition unity declined. By late 2022, the Azimio coalition was dissolving as a political entity, with constituent parties pursuing separate strategies and Raila's political status within the opposition deteriorating as other opposition figures distanced themselves from his failed presidential campaigns.
See Also
2022 Election 2022 Election Results 2022 Election Uhuru Betrayal 2022 Election Kenya Kwanza 2022 Election Supreme Court Petition
Sources
- Kanyinga, Karuti. (2022). Azimio Coalition and the 2022 Kenya Election. Institute for Development Studies.
- Wanyande, Peter. (2022). Elite Coalitions and Electoral Competition in Kenya's 2022 Election. Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis.
- International Crisis Group. (2022). Kenya's 2022 Election: Coalition Dynamics and Political Crisis. Retrieved from https://www.crisisgroup.org/