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Ruto and Uganda-Tanzania Pipeline Politics

4 min read

The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), a 1,443-kilometer pipeline designed to transport oil from Uganda's Lake Albert fields to the Tanzanian port of Tanga, became one of the most contentious infrastructure projects in the region during William Ruto's presidency. Kenya was not directly part of the pipeline, which runs through Uganda and Tanzania, but its exclusion was a source of diplomatic tension and economic anxiety. The project represented billions of dollars in investment and potential revenue, and Kenya's absence from it highlighted the limits of Ruto's ability to assert Kenya's leadership in East Africa.

The EACOP project, led by Uganda, Tanzania, French oil giant TotalEnergies, and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), was designed to unlock Uganda's estimated 6.5 billion barrels of oil reserves. The pipeline would carry heated crude oil from Hoima in Uganda to Tanga in Tanzania, where it would be shipped to international markets. The project was expected to cost over USD 5 billion and create thousands of jobs in both countries. For Uganda, it was a ticket to becoming an oil-exporting nation. For Tanzania, it meant port fees and transit revenues. For Kenya, it was a missed opportunity.

Kenya had initially lobbied hard to be the route for the pipeline, proposing a northern route through Kenya to the port of Lamu. The Kenya route was shorter and potentially cheaper, but it faced security concerns due to instability in northern Kenya and the threat of terrorism from groups like Al-Shabaab. Uganda ultimately chose the Tanzania route in 2016, a decision that was seen in Kenya as a diplomatic defeat. The choice was partly technical, but it was also political. Tanzania offered more favorable terms, and Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni had a closer relationship with Tanzania's President John Magufuli than with Kenya's leaders at the time.

Under Ruto, Kenya attempted to salvage some role in the project. Ruto's government proposed that Kenya could supply goods, services, and labor to the pipeline construction, and that Kenyan ports could serve as backup export routes if the Tanga route faced disruptions. But these were marginal roles, and Uganda and Tanzania were not particularly interested. The reality was that Kenya had been sidelined, and there was little Ruto could do to change that.

The EACOP also became a flashpoint in global climate politics. Environmental activists, particularly in Europe and North America, campaigned against the pipeline, arguing that it would displace communities, harm biodiversity, and contribute to global warming by enabling new fossil fuel extraction. European banks and insurers faced pressure to withdraw from the project, and several did. In 2023, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the pipeline and calling for its cancellation. Uganda and Tanzania responded furiously, accusing Western countries of climate hypocrisy and neo-colonialism. Kenya's position was awkward. Ruto had positioned himself as a climate champion, hosting the Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi in September 2023, but he could not afford to alienate Uganda and Tanzania by siding with Western environmental activists.

The pipeline also exposed tensions within the Ruto and East African Community framework. Kenya had long seen itself as the economic and diplomatic leader of East Africa, but the EACOP demonstrated that Uganda and Tanzania could pursue major projects without Kenya's involvement or approval. This was a blow to Kenya's regional prestige and raised questions about whether Kenya's influence in the EAC was declining.

By 2024, construction of the EACOP was well underway despite the international opposition. TotalEnergies and CNOOC had secured financing, and thousands of workers were clearing the route through Uganda and Tanzania. Kenya remained on the sidelines, watching as its neighbors unlocked oil wealth that could have flowed through Kenyan territory. For Ruto, it was a reminder that regional leadership required more than rhetoric. It required strategic vision, diplomatic skill, and the ability to deliver concrete benefits to partners. In this case, Kenya had failed on all three counts.

See Also

Sources

  1. "Uganda picks Tanzania route for oil pipeline," The Guardian, April 11, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/11/uganda-picks-tanzania-route-oil-pipeline
  2. "EACOP: Environmental and human rights concerns," Human Rights Watch, June 2023. https://www.hrw.org/report/2023/06/15/eacop-environmental-human-rights-concerns
  3. "European Parliament resolution on EACOP," European Parliament Press Release, September 15, 2023. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230915IPR05123/eacop-resolution
  4. "Kenya's exclusion from EACOP: A regional setback," The East African, May 2024. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-exclusion-eacop-regional-setback-4489321

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