Uhuru and Ruto Fallout
The rupture between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto during Uhuru's second term (2017-2022) was one of Kenya's defining political developments. Their alliance, which had successfully swept the 2013 and 2017 elections, collapsed spectacularly, leaving Ruto politically isolated and prompting Uhuru's endorsement of his rival Raila Odinga in 2022.
The Alliance Foundation
In 2013, Uhuru and Ruto formed a political partnership designed to mobilize Kikuyu (Uhuru's base) and Kalenjin (Ruto's base) voters. The alliance was transactional: each provided geographic and ethnic mobilization that the other lacked. Ruto expected that after Uhuru's two terms, Uhuru would reciprocate by supporting him for the presidency.
The 2013-2017 first term proceeded with alliance discipline maintained, though underlying tensions existed. Ruto was the more dynamic campaigner and organizational leader. Some Kikuyu elites resented that Ruto was building wealth and political capital in the executive. Concerns emerged (particularly from Kikuyu) that Ruto was positioning himself too aggressively for 2022.
The 2018 Handshake as Pivot Point
The March 2018 handshake between Uhuru and Raila Odinga signaled a fundamental shift. By reconciling with Raila and launching the Building Bridges Initiative, Uhuru was signaling that his post-presidential politics would center on elite consensus with Raila, not succession to Ruto.
Ruto immediately recognized this as a threat to his presidential ambitions. With Uhuru-Raila alignment, Ruto would face opposition from both the sitting president and the historic opposition leader. His political isolation deepened when the government began withdrawing resources and patronage that had sustained Ruto's political network.
Escalating Tensions
From 2018 onward, government action increasingly marginalized Ruto. In 2019-2020, the EACC (Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission) launched high-profile investigations into Ruto associates and businesses. Ruto viewed these as political persecution, designed to weaken him before 2022.
Ruto was excluded from BBI campaigns and decision-making. Ministers allied with him were dismissed. State resources that had supported his political activities were reallocated. By 2021, Ruto had effectively been reduced to a ceremonial deputy, with no substantive governmental role.
Ruto responded by building an independent political base. He traveled extensively across Kenya, particularly in rural areas and urban slums. He articulated a "hustler vs. dynasty" narrative, positioning himself as representative of ordinary Kenyans against an entrenched elite (Uhuru, Raila) hoarding power. This messaging resonated with economically marginalized constituencies.
2022 Succession and Endorsements
As 2022 approached, Uhuru faced a choice: formally endorse Ruto or align with Raila. His decision to support Raila was arguably surprising (Raila had been his rival since 2013), but it reflected the consolidation achieved through the handshake and the political alignment Uhuru preferred.
In May 2022, Uhuru publicly endorsed Raila in a rally, dealing Ruto what appeared to be a fatal blow. Analysts predicted Ruto's defeat given incumbent president backing for his opponent. However, other factors intervened: Raila's support in some regions was softer than expected, youth-driven campaign innovations favored Ruto, and economic grievances that Ruto's "hustler" messaging articulated had genuine salience.
In the August 2022 election, Ruto won with 50.49 percent against Raila's 48.80 percent. Uhuru's endorsement failed to deliver victory for Raila. This outcome, surprising to many analysts, suggested that despite incumbent presidential backing, electoral outcomes reflected broader political currents that transcended elite positioning.
Fallout After 2022
The 2022 election result left Uhuru politically diminished. His chosen successor had lost despite his endorsement. Ruto, vindicated by victory, had leverage to pursue grievances against the outgoing administration. Early reports suggested investigations into Uhuru and associates for various alleged crimes, though as of 2023-2024 actual prosecutions remained limited.
Ruto's victory also represented a rebuke to the elite power-sharing arrangement (Uhuru-Raila) that the handshake and BBI had sought to institutionalize. The electorate had rejected this arrangement in favor of a politician positioned outside the historic elite consensus.
The Uhuru-Ruto fallout was consequential for Kenya's political future. It demonstrated the fragility of personality-driven political alliances, the risks of excluding a politically significant actor (Ruto), and the limits of incumbent endorsement in determining electoral outcomes. It also showed that anti-establishment messaging, even from relatively privileged politicians, could resonate when directed against visible power concentration.
Reflection on Alliance Politics
The Uhuru-Ruto experience illustrated broader patterns in post-2010 Kenyan politics: alliances were transactional, personalities dominated, and political commitments were conditional. Ruto had expected reciprocal support from Uhuru; Uhuru prioritized his own political legacy and post-presidential influence. When interests diverged, the alliance collapsed.
For Kenya's institutional development, the fallout raised questions about whether party systems and programmatic politics could ever supplant personality-driven coalitions. The handshake and BBI represented an attempt to institutionalize elite arrangements. Their failure suggested that formal mechanisms could not overcome the fundamental fluidity of Kenyan elite politics.
See Also
- William Ruto
- Raila Odinga
- Uhuru Handshake
- Uhuru BBI
- 2022 Kenyan Election
- Jubilee Party
- United Democratic Alliance
- Kalenjin
Sources
- Institute for Social Accountability (2022). "The Uhuru-Ruto Rupture: Political Realignment in Kenya." https://isakenya.org/
- Africa Policy Research Institute (2022). "The 2022 Kenyan Election: Rejecting Elite Consensus." https://apri.or.ke/
- International Crisis Group (2022). "Kenya's 2022 Election: The Hustler's Victory." https://www.crisisgroup.org/
- The East African (2021). "Why Uhuru and Ruto Fell Apart." https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/