Moi's relationship with Ethiopia evolved from Cold War alignment during the period of Mengistu Haile Mariam's Derg regime to adjusted relations following the Derg's collapse in 1991 and the rise of Meles Zenawi's Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). Ethiopia, as the region's largest and historically most influential state, was of significant strategic importance, and Kenya's relations with Ethiopia affected Kenya's broader regional positioning.
Under Mengistu's dictatorship (1974-1991), Ethiopia pursued a Soviet-aligned socialist development model and engaged in bloody civil conflicts with various separatist and opposition movements. Kenya, while not aligned with Mengistu ideologically, maintained diplomatic relations and engaged in some economic and strategic coordination. The broader Cold War context, in which the Soviet Union was aligned with Ethiopia and the United States with Kenya, created a complex set of relationships and incentive structures.
The collapse of the Derg regime in 1991, following Soviet withdrawal of support and the military successes of the EPRDF, marked a significant transformation in Ethiopian politics and in the region's geopolitical landscape. The new Ethiopian government under Meles Zenawi was initially ideologically closer to the Soviet legacy than to Western capitalism, yet pragmatic considerations drove the new government toward engagement with the West and with regional partners like Kenya. The transition created opportunities for Kenya to adjust its relationship with Ethiopia.
Moi's government adapted relatively smoothly to the change in Ethiopian leadership, recognising that engagement with the new Ethiopian government would be necessary for Kenya's interests in regional stability and trade. The EPRDF government, while authoritarian in its own right, was more pragmatic about regional relationships than the Mengistu regime had been. Kenya and Ethiopia could cooperate on regional security issues, on trade, and on various bilateral matters.
The Eritrean independence struggle, which was resolved through the collapse of the Derg and the establishment of Eritrea as an independent state in 1993, created new regional dynamics that Kenya had to navigate. Ethiopia's loss of access to the Red Sea through Eritrean independence affected Ethiopian strategic interests and created incentives for cooperation with Kenya and other regional partners. The new geopolitical configuration created opportunities for Kenya to enhance its regional significance.
The East African Community, which had collapsed in the 1970s, was revived in the 1990s with Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania as member states. Ethiopia's relationship to the EAC was ambiguous, and the potential for Ethiopia's eventual membership or participation in regional integration was discussed. Kenya's position as a leading member of the revived EAC gave it leverage in regional affairs, and Moi's government could position Kenya as a leader of regional integration and cooperation.
The democratic transition that was supposed to follow the EPRDF's military victory in Ethiopia was slower and less comprehensive than international observers had hoped. The EPRDF established an authoritarian system that was arguably more efficient and more technically competent than the Mengistu regime but still maintained significant constraints on opposition and limited political competition. Kenya's accommodation with the new Ethiopian regime thus did not represent a shift toward supporting democratic governance but rather represented an adjustment to changed circumstances and a recognition that regional cooperation was necessary regardless of the ideological orientation of regional governments.
See Also
Foreign Policy Moi Foreign Policy Political History Regional Integration Moi and Uganda Moi and Tanzania
Sources
- https://www.jstor.org/stable/3172813 (accessed 2024)
- https://www.britannica.com/topic/Ethiopia-Political-History (accessed 2024)
- https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2000450321/ethiopia-relations-analysis (accessed 2024)