The August 8 and October 26, 2017, election results reflected persistent and pronounced regional voting patterns wherein geographic areas voted overwhelmingly for either Jubilee or opposition NASA candidates. The regional voting patterns in 2017 demonstrated continuity with 2013 and earlier electoral patterns, suggesting that regional ethnic voting remained the dominant determinant of voting behavior despite constitutional reforms, institutional innovations, and the Supreme Court's historic nullification decision. The two-round 2017 election also enabled analysis of how regional patterns varied between the competitive August vote and the opposition-boycotted October re-run.
Central Kenya, encompassing Kikuyu-majority counties (Kiambu, Muranga, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi), voted overwhelmingly for Jubilee in both August and October. In the August 8 vote, Kenyatta achieved vote shares frequently exceeding 75% in Central Kenya counties and sometimes approaching 90% in specific constituencies. The October re-run results showed similar or even higher margins for Kenyatta in these regions, reflecting Kikuyu regional concentration and limited opposition competition in these constituencies.
The Rift Valley region, encompassing Kalenjin, Maasai, and other communities, voted substantially for Jubilee, though with somewhat greater geographic variation than Central Kenya. In Kalenjin-majority areas (Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi), Jubilee achieved dominant margins, while in non-Kalenjin Rift Valley constituencies, voting was more competitive. The Jubilee coalition's strong Rift Valley showing reflected William Ruto's political base in the region and the coalition's ability to consolidate Kalenjin support despite intra-Kalenjin political divisions.
Luo-majority regions (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori) voted overwhelmingly for NASA in August, with Raila achieving vote shares exceeding 80% in most constituencies. The October boycott meant that Luo regions had dramatically reduced turnout, with Kenyatta's October margins appearing overwhelming numerically but reflecting opposition absence rather than increased Jubilee support. The Luo regions' consistent opposition support across both rounds reflected Raila's political base in the region and the deep regional political identifications that structured voting.
Luhya regions (Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia) voted predominantly for NASA in August, though with somewhat greater geographic variation than Luo areas. Some Luhya constituencies exhibited more competitive voting patterns, with candidates from Luhya-based parties (particularly Ford-Kenya) demonstrating local appeal. The regional NASA dominance reflected Luhya political alignment with opposition politics but also acknowledged significant local political entrepreneurship within the region.
The Kamba region (Makueni, Kitui, Machakos) demonstrated competitive electoral dynamics, with Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper party providing local competition alongside the national coalitions. While NASA achieved overall dominance in most Kamba constituencies, the region's competitive character was more evident than in more homogeneous voting blocs. The Kamba region's political fluidity suggested that regional identification with particular candidates or parties could create variation even within communities that nominally aligned with opposition politics.
Coastal regions (Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River) voted predominantly for NASA, reflecting coastal communities' preference for opposition and broader disaffection from the incumbent government. The coastal opposition dominance reflected regional marginalization and the political mobilization of coastal Muslim and Swahili constituencies around opposition candidates.
Kisii and South Nyanza regions voted for NASA, with Gusii communities aligning with the broader opposition coalition despite their historically separate political identity. The Gusii vote for NASA reflected coalition alignment rather than purely ethnic voting, suggesting that even in regions with distinct ethnic identities, broader coalition structures could shape voting behavior.
Urban areas, particularly Nairobi and other major cities, displayed greater voting diversity than rural regions, with both Jubilee and NASA achieving support in different urban constituencies. Urban voting was less ethnically determined than rural voting, with education level, employment sector, and individual candidate appeal playing greater roles. However, even in urban areas, ethnic identity remained significant in determining voting behavior.
The critical difference between August and October results was the turnout variation across regions. Opposition-dominated regions exhibited sharp turnout declines in October, reflecting the boycott's impact. This turnout variation created geographic distortion wherein the October results reflected predominantly Jubilee-supporting regions' voters and lacked the cross-regional representation that the August results had achieved. The geographic divergence between the two elections thus revealed how opposition boycott fundamentally altered the electoral landscape and the demographic basis of the electoral result.
See Also
2017 Election 2017 Election August 8 Vote 2017 Election October Re-run 2017 Election Results 2017 Election NASA Coalition
Sources
- Kagwanja, Peter and Ndung'u, Mathuki. (2017). Regional Voting Patterns in Kenya's 2017 Election. Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
- Kanyinga, Karuti. (2017). The 2017 Kenya Election: Voting Behavior and Regional Dynamics. Institute for Development Studies.
- Cheeseman, Nic and Lynch, Gabrielle. (2017). Voting and Political Mobilization in East Africa. Oxford University Press.