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Uhuru and the Opposition

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Uhuru and the Opposition

Uhuru Kenyatta's relationship with opposition forces transformed dramatically across his presidency. From confrontation during his first term and the 2017 election crisis, Uhuru pivoted toward incorporation of opposition leadership (particularly Raila Odinga) following the 2018 handshake. This shift left the broader opposition fractured and weakened, raising questions about Kenya's democratic competition.

First Term Opposition Relations (2013-2017)

During Uhuru's first term, the opposition was dominated by Raila Odinga's ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) and the NASA (National Super Alliance) coalition formed in 2016. These forces represented distinct political bases: Raila's Luo support in Western Kenya, allied with other ethnic and regional groups opposing Jubilee.

The opposition was relatively weak during the first term. Jubilee had a parliamentary supermajority, allowing passage of legislation without opposition support. Opposition MPs engaged in parliamentary questioning and lobbying but had limited legislative leverage. The government used state resources and patronage to peel away some opposition parliamentarians, further weakening legislative opposition.

Internationally, the opposition cultivated support from Western governments, civil society organizations, and regional actors (particularly the AU) skeptical of Uhuru's governance. Opposition narratives about corruption, inequality, and marginalization resonated with some international audiences, though with limited domestic impact during the first term.

2017 Election Crisis and Opposition Mobilization

The 2017 election annulment energized opposition forces. The Supreme Court's invalidation of the August election was framed as vindication of opposition claims of fraud. Opposition mobilization intensified as Raila's supporters demanded systemic reforms before the re-run.

The October re-run, held without opposition participation, left opposition constituencies (particularly urban areas and coastal regions) demoralized. Low turnout in opposition areas was interpreted as protest against the electoral process. The boycott was costly for Raila electorally but was framed as principled refusal to participate in a compromised process.

Following the re-run, opposition mobilization continued. "Resistance" meetings were held in opposition strongholds. Civil disobedience was threatened. Some spoke of forming a parallel government or international mechanisms to challenge Uhuru's legitimacy. The atmosphere was tense and politically polarized.

The 2018 Handshake and Opposition Fracture

The March 2018 handshake fundamentally altered opposition dynamics. By reconciling with Raila and incorporating him into the executive sphere (without cabinet position), Uhuru effectively separated Raila from the broader opposition. ODM, Raila's party, began cooperating with government on legislation and cabinet-level issues.

This development fractured the opposition. Raila's faction, now aligned with Uhuru, controlled significant parliamentary seats and organizational resources. Other opposition elements felt abandoned by Raila's reconciliation. The broader opposition movement that had coalesced around anti-Uhuru sentiment lost its primary political figure.

Alternative opposition leadership never fully cohesively emerged. Ford Kenya, ACK, and other parties represented regional or ideological interests but lacked the ethnic or personal mobilization capacity of Raila's ODM. By 2022, opposition forces were divided among multiple factions without unified leadership.

Limited Opposition Space

After the handshake, government space for opposition narrowed. Media coverage became less balanced, with state media giving disproportionate coverage to government initiatives. Opposition rallies faced occasional police restrictions on grounds of security or public order. Civil society organizations working on governance or human rights issues faced pressure, including tax investigations and legal harassment.

Parliament, despite opposition presence, had limited power to constrain executive action. Government supermajorities in parliamentary committees meant that government initiatives faced minimal scrutiny. Opposition attempts to investigate corruption or challenge executive decisions were regularly defeated along party lines.

International observers raised concerns about shrinking democratic space. While not reaching the level of authoritarian closure, Kenya experienced measurable constraints on opposition activities and civil liberties compared to pre-2018 periods.

Opposition and 2022

As 2022 approached, opposition forces remained fractured. Raila's ODM was effectively part of the government coalition, while other opposition elements were marginal. This fragmentation meant that Raila's 2022 presidential bid lacked a unified opposition coalition.

Raila's campaign benefited from Uhuru's endorsement (contrary to most analysts' expectations given prior rivalry). However, Raila's campaign also faced resistance from emerging "outsider" candidates, particularly Ruto, who positioned themselves against the elite consensus that had governed post-handshake. Ruto's victory suggested that despite opposition marginalization by the handshake, electoral competition remained dynamic.

Democratic Implications

The opposition's trajectory under Uhuru reflected broader patterns in post-2010 Kenya: elite-driven politics where institutional competition was secondary to personality-based coalitions. The handshake exemplified how opposition could be neutralized through elite incorporation rather than institutional competition.

For democracy, this pattern raised concerns. Opposition was supposed to provide accountability, policy alternatives, and representation of excluded constituencies. When opposition leadership was incorporated into government, these functions atrophied. Citizens with grievances had limited channels for political voice.

However, the 2022 election result (Ruto's victory despite elite consensus supporting Raila) suggested that electoral competition could still produce surprises when constituencies mobilized around alternative visions. The opposition, though weakened by handshake dynamics, was not eliminated.

See Also

Sources

  1. Institute for Social Accountability (2019). "Opposition in Kenya: From Mobilization to Marginalization." https://isakenya.org/
  2. International Crisis Group (2018). "Kenya: The Handshake and Democratic Space." https://www.crisisgroup.org/
  3. Human Rights Watch (2020). "Kenya: Democratic Space Narrowing." https://www.hrw.org/
  4. Africa Confidential (2018). "Kenya: Opposition Fracture." https://www.africa-confidential.com/

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