The 2022 presidential election was held on August 9, 2022, with William Ruto emerging as the victor with 50.49 percent of the vote against Raila Odinga's 48.85 percent. The election was remarkably peaceful, with minimal violence compared to 2007-08. The election outcome itself was significant: Ruto, an ICC indictee from the 2007-08 violence period, won the presidency while Raila, the opposition figure from 2007-08, lost. The peaceful nature of the 2022 election represented a milestone; Kenya had held three elections (2013, 2017, 2022) since 2007-08 without returning to large-scale electoral violence, suggesting that institutional reform and political learning had modestly succeeded in preventing recurrence.
The 2022 election's framing was distinctive. Ruto ran as a "hustler," positioning himself as an outsider who understood working-class concerns, against what he termed the "dynasty" (representing Uhuru and Raila's political families). This framing mobilized Ruto's base by offering an anti-elite narrative that appealed to younger voters and to voters in areas feeling marginalized by the Kikuyu-Luo political elite dominance. The "hustler vs dynasty" narrative did not have explicit ethnic content, though ethnicity clearly shaped voting patterns. Ruto's coalition drew support from Kalenjin, Luhya, and some Kikuyu and Somali areas, while Raila's base remained Luo-dominated with support from some coastal and western communities.
Raila challenged the 2022 election results in the Supreme Court, alleging irregularities. The court upheld Ruto's election on September 5, 2022, finding no basis for annulment. The court's decision validated the election outcome and allowed Ruto to be sworn in as president on September 13, 2022. This outcome demonstrated continued judicial independence; the court had reviewed the election and upheld it without apparent executive pressure to annul. Raila and opposition supporters criticized the court's decision, but the outcome was accepted without recourse to violence. The peaceful resolution of the electoral dispute through courts represented a consolidation of institutional norms established post-2007.
The 2022 election occurred in a context of reduced violence risk compared to 2017. While 2017 had seen approximately 100 deaths related to the election dispute and rerun period, 2022 saw minimal electoral violence. This difference was attributed to multiple factors: elite restraint (Uhuru and Raila's handshake had created elite accommodation), police and security force training and commitment to restraint, public memory of 2007-08 costs (voters and communities were reluctant to repeat violence), and the emergence of alternative political narratives that were less explicitly ethnic. The 2022 election outcome itself (a peaceful power transition despite a competitive race) was seen as a success of Kenya's post-2007 institutional development.
However, the 2022 election also highlighted unresolved grievances. Raila's support base (Luo and coastal areas) remained concentrated and was defeated in the presidential race, raising questions about whether political power would continue to be captured by Kikuyu-Kalenjin coalitions while Luo interests remained excluded. Land disputes from 2007-08 remained unresolved, with Rift Valley communities continuing to occupy land seized during the violence. Corruption persisted, with former ICC indictees and other figures implicated in violence remaining politically powerful. These unresolved issues suggested that while electoral violence had been controlled through institutional reform, the underlying structural causes of violence (land, corruption, ethnic marginalization) persisted.
See Also
The Handshake 2018 New IEBC 2017 Election Echo William Ruto Role Unfinished Business 2026
Sources
- International Crisis Group. "Kenya's 2022 Elections: Navigating Transition." Africa Report No. 309, July 2022. Available at https://www.crisisgroup.org/
- Carter Center. "Observing Kenya's 2022 General Elections." Atlanta, 2022. Available at https://www.cartercenter.org/
- Kenya Supreme Court. "Judgment on the 2022 Presidential Election." Nairobi, September 2022. Available at https://www.supremecourt.go.ke/