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Kibaki and 2007 Election

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The 2007 presidential election and its disputed result represented the most consequential moment of Mwai Kibaki's presidency. The election, held in December 2007, pitted Kibaki's seeking to secure another presidential term against opposition leader Raila Odinga's bid to become Kenya's first non-Kikuyu president since Moi's Kalenjin-led government. The election results were controversial, triggering post-election violence that killed roughly 1,000 people and displaced 600,000. The violence and its aftermath fundamentally altered Kenya's political trajectory and complicated Kibaki's presidency.

The election campaign was contentious, with both Kibaki and Odinga mobilizing their respective ethnic constituencies. Kibaki, as the incumbent, controlled state resources and used them to campaign for his reelection. Odinga, representing Luo and allied ethnic groups frustrated with Kikuyu dominance under Kibaki, mounted a vigorous opposition campaign. The election reflected deep ethnic divisions in Kenyan society, as voters increasingly voted along ethnic lines rather than on policy bases. International observers noted that the campaign environment was characterized by ethnic mobilization and communal tensions.

The election was announced to have resulted in Kibaki's reelection with roughly 41 percent of the vote against Odinga's roughly 40 percent. The results were extremely close, suggesting that the election could have gone either way depending on disputed vote counts. In many regions, reports of irregularities, ballot stuffing, and manipulation emerged. Opposition supporters contested the result, alleging that the official counts did not reflect actual voting. International observers noted irregularities but stopped short of declaring the election results null and void.

The dispute over election results triggered violence immediately following the announcement of results. Ethnic tensions that had been building during the campaign exploded into communal violence. Kikuyu regions, where Kibaki's supporters were concentrated, attacked non-Kikuyu residents and vice versa. The violence spread rapidly from Nairobi throughout central Kenya, the Rift Valley, and western Kenya. Organized groups, allegedly organized by political actors, attacked civilians of other ethnic groups. Entire communities were displaced, with families fleeing ethnic violence. Hospitals were overwhelmed with wounded individuals. The scale of violence and its apparent ethnic organization shocked both Kenyans and the international community.

Kibaki's government's response to the post-election violence was criticized as inadequate and sometimes as complicit. Security forces allegedly failed to prevent violence and in some cases participated in or encouraged attacks on opposition-supporting communities. Government broadcasting, controlled by Kibaki's administration, provided limited coverage of violence initially. The government's initial response was to declare victory and call on opposition to accept the results rather than to address the violence occurring throughout the nation. Only as violence escalated did the government activate serious security responses.

International response to the election and violence was swift. The United States, European governments, and African Union expressed concern and called for mediation. Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan was invited to lead mediation efforts. The International Criminal Court announced that it was monitoring the violence and considering whether to investigate crimes against humanity. The international pressure on Kibaki to resolve the political crisis and address the violence intensified significantly.

Negotiations between Kibaki and Odinga began gradually and haltingly. Both sides had incentives to resolve the dispute, as continued violence threatened to destabilize Kenya and damage the nation's economy. Kofi Annan's mediation team worked to facilitate dialogue between the two leaders. Eventually, a power-sharing agreement was negotiated in which Odinga would be appointed Prime Minister while Kibaki retained the presidency. The agreement was controversial, as it appeared to reward post-election violence and to set aside questions of electoral accountability.

The 2007 election and its aftermath revealed deep fault lines in Kenyan society. The violence demonstrated that Kenya's unity was fragile and could collapse quickly under political stress. Ethnic tensions, which had been manageable under single-party and authoritarian rule, exploded when competitive elections created genuine stakes for political power. The election result suggested that Kenyan politics was increasingly structured along ethnic lines, with candidates winning votes primarily from their own ethnic communities and with little capacity to build cross-ethnic coalitions.

The accountability for election fraud and violence emerged as contentious issues. The ICC eventually charged prominent political figures with crimes against humanity related to post-election violence. However, accountability proved incomplete and contentious, as many Kenyans felt that the ICC's interventions in Kenya's internal affairs were problematic. The lack of comprehensive domestic accountability for election fraud or violence contributed to public cynicism about the possibility of justice.

The constitutional reform that eventually emerged in 2010 was designed partly in response to the 2007 crisis. The new constitution created devolved county governments intended to distribute power away from the presidency and to provide governance opportunities for diverse ethnic groups. The constitutional reforms represented an attempt to address the underlying governance issues that the 2007 election crisis had revealed.

See Also

Sources

  1. Lynch, Gabrielle. "I Say to You: Ethnic Politics and the Kenyan Presidency." University of Chicago Press, 2011. https://www.press.uchicago.edu
  2. Branch, Daniel. "Kenya: Between Hope and Despair, 1992-2011." Yale University Press, 2011. https://www.yalebooks.com
  3. International Criminal Court. "Situation in the Republic of Kenya." ICC Office of the Prosecutor, 2010. https://www.icc-cpi.int