The 2002 presidential election marked the end of Moi's twenty-four-year presidency and the beginning of a transition that Moi had carefully orchestrated to ensure that his chosen successor, Uhuru Kenyatta, would assume power. The decision to support Uhuru, a Kikuyu from the Kenyatta family rather than a Kalenjin, represented a strategic gambit by Moi to maintain influence through a successor who would owe his presidency to Moi's support and whose power base would depend on continuing the Moi system's patronage networks rather than displacing them.
Uhuru Kenyatta was the son of Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya's first president, and represented a return to Kikuyu dominance in national politics after twenty-four years of Kalenjin-centred power. Moi's support for Uhuru over Kalenjin alternatives signalled several things: that Moi recognised the unsustainability of sustained Kalenjin dominance given Kikuyu and Luo numerical superiority; that he preferred a Kikuyu president who would be indebted to him to one who might pursue independent policies; and that he viewed Uhuru as likely to be deferential to the elder statesman and to protect Moi's interests even as he assumed the presidency.
The political dynamics of the 2002 succession also reflected tensions within KANU and within the Kalenjin elite. Alternative candidates for the KANU nomination emerged, including Chris Okemo and other Kalenjin politicians who viewed themselves as more legitimate successors to Moi than Uhuru. However, Moi used the party machinery and his control over state resources to ensure Uhuru's selection as KANU's presidential candidate. The suppression of alternative Kalenjin candidates revealed Moi's determination to maintain control even as he relinquished the presidency.
The opposition to KANU in 2002 coalesced around the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), a coalition of opposition parties that united Kikuyu, Luo, and other non-Kalenjin ethnic groups in support of Mwai Kibaki as the presidential candidate. Kibaki's candidacy represented a return to the Kikuyu-Luo alliance that had dominated KANU until Kenyatta's death and Moi's ascension to power. The election campaign of 2002 reflected these ethnic divisions: KANU and Uhuru appealed primarily to Kalenjin and pastoral voters, while NARC and Kibaki appealed to Kikuyu and Luo constituencies.
Moi's own campaign on behalf of Uhuru was intense and visible. The aging former president campaigned actively, invoking his record as a leader who had maintained stability and prosperity. He attacked the opposition coalition, warning of chaos if KANU lost power. He invoked ethnic appeals to Kalenjin voters, asking them to support Uhuru as their representative and as a safeguard of their interests. Yet the broader Kenyan electorate appeared ready for a change in government after two decades of economic decline, corruption, and political repression.
The 2002 election resulted in a decisive defeat for KANU and Uhuru. Kibaki and NARC won the election with a majority of votes, and Kibaki assumed the presidency in December 2002. The defeat was shocking to Moi, who appeared to have miscalculated the extent of public desire for political change. The loss also represented a potential threat to Moi's post-presidential interests: a new government less beholden to him might pursue investigations into corruption and human rights abuses that he had perpetrated.
Moi's effort to maintain influence after stepping down took several forms. He remained a significant figure within KANU, intervening in party politics despite his retirement. He cultivated relationships with President Kibaki, seeking assurances that his interests and those of his family would be protected. He moved to consolidate his wealth and to ensure that his business and land holdings would be secure against potential state action. The post-presidency revealed Moi's anxiety about what would happen to him and his associates once he no longer controlled the security forces and state apparatus.
The succession to Uhuru, though unsuccessful in keeping KANU in power, had demonstrated Moi's capacity to shape events even as he prepared to relinquish formal authority. He had been instrumental in the selection of KANU's candidate, had campaigned on his behalf, and had attempted to influence the broader political environment. The failure of this effort revealed the limits of Moi's power and the extent to which his personal authority had depended on control of state resources and security forces rather than on genuine popular support.
See Also
2002 General Election Moi Post-Presidency Rise to Power Decline Presidency Transition to Multiparty
Sources
- https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mwai-Kibaki (accessed 2024)
- https://www.jstor.org/stable/3172813 (accessed 2024)
- https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2002121501/2002-election-analysis (accessed 2024)