Luhya and the 2022 Election

The 2022 Kenyan presidential election marked a significant political shift for the Luhya community, with major political leaders withdrawing support from opposition leader Raila Odinga to back Deputy President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza coalition. This alliance decision had profound consequences for Luhya political positioning and intra-community divisions.

Mudavadi's Calculation and Shift

Musalia Mudavadi, the Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader and long-time Luhya political figure, made the strategic decision in 2022 to support William Ruto's presidential bid rather than Raila Odinga's opposition coalition. Mudavadi had historically been aligned with opposition coalitions and had himself been a presidential aspirant in previous elections.

Mudavadi's decision to back Ruto was presented as political pragmatism. He argued that supporting the likely winner (as Ruto was polling ahead) would position Luhya to benefit from power and resources. He promised to deliver 90 percent of Luhya votes to Ruto, making this a significant bloc political commitment.

Wetang'ula and Ford Kenya

Moses Wetang'ula, leader of the Ford Kenya party and Bungoma Senator, followed similar logic, also joining Kenya Kwanza coalition in support of Ruto. The combined weight of Mudavadi and Wetang'ula, Kenya's two major Luhya political leaders, making the same choice significantly influenced broader Luhya voting patterns.

Voting Patterns and Results

The 2022 election results showed substantial Luhya support for Ruto's Kenya Kwanza coalition, though not quite the 90 percent Mudavadi promised. Ruto won 56.5 percent of the national vote, with stronger performance in Luhya regions than in some other areas. Most Luhya counties voted substantially for Kenya Kwanza, including Bungoma, Busia, Trans-Nzoia, and parts of Kakamega and Vihiga.

However, the vote was not unanimous. Some Luhya, particularly in certain regions and sub-groups, voted for Raila Odinga's opposition coalition. This heterogeneity reflected both disagreement with Mudavadi and Wetang'ula's decision and genuine political divisions within Luhya communities.

Factors Behind the Decision

Several factors motivated the Mudavadi-Wetang'ula shift from opposition to Ruto:

Luhya Political Marginalization: The inability to produce a Luhya president, combined with lack of significant Luhya presence in Odinga's previous governments, made opposition alliance seem futile.
Cabinet Positions: Ruto promised cabinet positions and resource allocation to Luhya, making power participation concrete rather than aspirational.
Polling Realities: By mid-2022, Ruto was polling substantially ahead of Odinga, making Ruto appear the likely winner.
Ethnic Politics: Both leaders calculated that supporting the likely winner was better than supporting a losing opposition coalition that would have no power to distribute.

Internal Luhya Tensions

Mudavadi's decision created significant tension within Luhya communities. Some viewed him as pragmatic and effective at securing power for Luhya. Others saw his switch as betrayal, particularly those who had been loyal opposition members or who had supported Odinga (a Lake Region Luo with strong Luhya support in previous elections).

The decision exposed divisions between Bukusu-dominated Trans-Nzoia and Bungoma counties (which voted more strongly for Ruto) and Maragoli-dominated Vihiga and Kakamega communities (which showed more heterogeneous voting).

Cabinet and Government Positions

Following Ruto's electoral victory, Luhya politicians received cabinet positions and government appointments. Mudavadi was appointed as Deputy Prime Minister, a significant post giving him responsibility across multiple government functions. Other Luhya secured ministerial positions, though the exact allocation varied as Ruto formed and reformed his cabinet over subsequent months and years.

Odinga and the Raila Base Fracture

The Luhya shift to Ruto contributed to Raila Odinga's electoral defeat. Odinga's opposition coalition had historically relied on Luhya votes as a key component of opposition support. The loss of major Luhya political leadership's backing and substantial portions of the Luhya electorate was costly to Odinga's presidential ambitions. This represented the first time since multiparty politics began that the major Luhya political figures aligned with a winning presidential candidate.

2023 Raila Alliance with Ruto

Subsequent to his election loss, Raila Odinga eventually formed a coalition government with Ruto in 2023, joining his cabinet as Prime Minister. This further complicated Luhya political positioning, as opposition figures were brought into government, reducing clear distinction between government and opposition blocks.

Assessment and Implications

The 2022 election and Luhya political repositioning had mixed results. Luhya secured significant government representation under Ruto, achieving positions of power that had eluded them under previous governments. However, the decision to support Ruto immediately risked aligning Luhya with a government that became increasingly unpopular, eventually forcing Ruto to form a coalition government with opposition parties.

The 2022 election decision raised fundamental questions about Luhya political strategy: whether bloc voting for power was sustainable, whether that power translated to genuine Luhya benefit, and whether individual Luhya leaders' decisions reflected community preferences or personal advancement ambitions.

Our Kenya

Explorer