The 2013 election results reflected pronounced and persistent regional and ethnic voting patterns, wherein certain geographic areas voted overwhelmingly for the Jubilee coalition while other regions strongly backed the CORD opposition. These regional patterns were not novel, but reflected longstanding ethnic and political divisions in Kenyan electoral behavior that had structured voting in all post-1992 multiparty elections. The 2013 results thus demonstrated the continuity of regional voting patterns despite constitutional reforms, generational change, and institutional innovation.
The Jubilee coalition performed exceptionally strongly in Central Kenya, encompassing Kikuyu-majority counties (Kiambu, Muranga, Nyeri, Kirinyaga) and neighboring areas (Embu, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi). In these regions, Uhuru Kenyatta achieved vote shares frequently exceeding 75% and sometimes approaching 90% in specific constituencies. The Kikuyu vote for Kenyatta reflected multiple factors: ethnic identification with a Kikuyu candidate, the historical legacy of Jomo Kenyatta's presidency, perception of economic benefits from association with the Kenyatta family, and regional networks that the Jubilee coalition effectively mobilized. The Central Kenya vote constituted the Jubilee coalition's largest single regional bloc and was determinative of the coalition's national victory.
The Rift Valley region, home to Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, and Samburu communities, also voted substantially for Jubilee, though with somewhat greater geographic variation than Central Kenya. William Ruto's presence on the ticket strengthened Jubilee's appeal in Kalenjin-majority areas (Baringo, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Kericho, Bomet, Nandi), wherein the coalition achieved vote shares exceeding 70% in many constituencies. However, some Rift Valley areas with non-Kalenjin majorities voted for CORD, suggesting regional heterogeneity. The Jubilee coalition's Rift Valley victory represented a significant geographic and ethnic consolidation given the historical tensions between Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities stemming from 2007 post-election violence.
The opposition CORD coalition dominated in Luo-majority regions (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori), where Raila achieved overwhelming majorities frequently exceeding 80% of the vote. The Luo vote for Raila reflected long-standing political affiliation with the ODM party, Raila's personal political base in his home region, and ethnic voting patterns established over decades of Kenyan politics. The persistence of Luo support for Raila was noteworthy, as it demonstrated the durability of regional voting blocs across multiple election cycles.
The Luhya-majority regions (Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma) also voted predominantly for CORD, though with somewhat more geographic variation than Luo areas. In some Luhya constituencies, candidates from Luhya-based parties (particularly ANC) competed successfully against both national coalitions, suggesting that Luhya voting patterns were somewhat more fragmented than Luo voting. The CORD coalition achieved strong majorities in most Luhya areas, but not the overwhelming dominance that characterized Luo voting.
The Coastal region, encompassing Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and Tana River counties, voted predominantly for CORD, reflecting both historical opposition voting patterns and disaffection with the Kibaki regime among coastal Muslims and the Swahili community. In Mombasa particularly, CORD achieved commanding majorities, though some coastal counties displayed greater competitiveness between the coalitions. The coastal region's CORD preference was somewhat surprising given Raila's limited historical organizational presence in the coast, but reflected coastal communities' desire for change and the perception that CORD represented opposition to the incumbent regional power structure.
The Upper Eastern region (Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, home to Kamba communities) demonstrated competitive dynamics between Jubilee and CORD. The Wiper party's Kalonzo Musyoka held his home constituency as a regional power base, complicating the two-coalition framing. While CORD won most of the region, some constituencies voted for Jubilee, suggesting regional fluidity not present in the Kikuyu or Luo heartlands. The Kamba region's competitive character meant that the 2013 election outcome there was not predetermined by ethnic voting patterns alone.
The Western regions (Kisii and South Nyanza) voted for CORD, with Kisii (Gusii-majority) voting for CORD despite Gusii's historically separate identity from Luo and Luhya communities. The Gusii vote for CORD suggested coalition alignment rather than purely ethnic voting, as Gusii voters chose to support the broader opposition coalition rather than seek separate Gusii-based representation.
Urban areas, particularly Nairobi and other major cities, displayed greater voting diversity than rural regions, with both coalitions competing viably in urban constituencies. Urban voting was less ethnically determined than rural voting, with education level, employment sector, and individual preferences playing greater roles in determining choice. However, even in urban areas, ethnic identity remained a significant factor in voting behavior.
The regional patterns of 2013 thus demonstrated remarkable continuity with historical electoral patterns despite constitutional reform and institutional innovation. The myth that constitutional change would transcend ethnic voting patterns did not manifest in 2013 results. Instead, regional ethnic voting patterns persisted, suggesting deep structural roots of Kenya's electoral behavior that political reform could not easily override.
See Also
2013 Election 2013 Election Results 2013 Election Jubilee Coalition 2013 Election CORD Coalition 2013 Election Uhuru Campaign 2013 Election Raila Campaign
Sources
- Kagwanja, Peter and Ndung'u, Mathuki. (2013). The Two Faces of the Ballot: 2013 Elections and Prospects for Democracy in Kenya. Friedrich Ebert Foundation.
- Kanyinga, Karuti. (2013). The 2013 Kenya Elections: Voting Behavior and Regional Patterns. Institute for Development Studies.
- Branch, Daniel. (2014). Kenya between Hope and Despair: 1964-2013. Yale University Press.