The Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD), which had emerged as the initial focal point for opposition organizing against KANU in 1991, split into two competing parties before the 1992 election. The split created FORD-Kenya, led by Oginga Odinga, and FORD-Asili, led by Kenneth Matiba, along with a separate Democratic Party led by Mwai Kibaki. The division of the opposition among three parties was catastrophic for opposition prospects and was the primary reason that Moi and KANU won the election despite opposition votes substantially exceeding KANU votes in aggregate.
The FORD split reflected both personal rivalries and ethnic and regional divisions within the opposition. Matiba, a wealthy Kikuyu businessman who had led a relatively isolated political comeback after suffering a stroke, competed with Odinga for leadership of the opposition. Matiba's FORD-Asili attempted to position itself as the party of Kikuyu interests, while Odinga's FORD-Kenya positioned itself as a continuation of Odinga's longstanding political tradition and claimed to represent broader pan-Kenyan opposition interests.
The split also reflected divisions within the opposition about strategy and about which presidential candidate could win. Some opposition figures calculated that Odinga, as the elder statesman and original opponent of Moi's rise, had the best chance of defeating Moi. Others believed that a younger, wealthier businessman like Matiba might be more effective. Still others believed that a Kikuyu politician like Kibaki might be able to mobilize Kikuyu support more effectively than Odinga, who was Luo.
The opposition split had profound consequences for the 1992 election outcome. The three opposition parties and their three presidential candidates competed for opposition support, with their combined votes exceeding Moi's total. However, because the election used a plurality system (the candidate with the most votes wins), the division of opposition votes allowed Moi to win with only 36.4% of the total vote. If the opposition had united behind a single candidate, Moi's total would not have been sufficient to win.
The FORD split also reflected the absence of institutional mechanisms for opposition coordination and for resolving disagreements about strategy and leadership. The opposition emerged suddenly after 29 years of suppression and lacked the institutional maturity and organizational capacity to manage internal disagreements constructively.
See Also
- 1992 Election
- Forum for the Restoration of Democracy
- Oginga Odinga
- Kenneth Matiba
- Mwai Kibaki
- Opposition Coalition
- Electoral Systems and Outcomes
Sources
- Throup, David & Hornsby, Charles. Multi-Party Politics in Kenya: The Kenyatta and Moi States and the Triumph of the System in the 1992 Election (1998) - detailed analysis of FORD split.
- Kibwana, Kivutha et al. In the Shadow of Good Governance (2003) - opposition organizing and divisions.
- Matiba, Kenneth. The Fight for Democracy in Kenya (1992) - Matiba's perspective on FORD division.
- International Republican Institute. Kenya 1992 Election Observation Report (1993) - observer documentation of opposition dynamics.